WILL MARKET CRASHCrash Risk Monitor

A transparent market crash monitor

Crash risk monitor How the score works October 2026 reading
Crash risk today
0/100
Guarded

S&P 500
One number, from seven warning signs.

S&P 500 47 Nasdaq 50
Chance of a 20% fall within 6 months · judgment plus data
0%S&P 500

The average of two numbers: what followed months that scored like this one, and what the outlook says about the things the score cannot see. The gauge is backtested. This number is not.

What the data says6%Months in the Guarded band were followed by a 20% fall 6% of the time, 1928 to today. The odds
What the outlook says25%Written 17 Oct 2026 against this score: tariffs, war, the Fed, AI spending, credit, plumbing, politics. The outlook

Rule fixed in advance (v1.0.0): a simple average, half and half. A normal month is 13%. How this number is built

The last 12 months, month by month

The same score at each month-end, in more detail than the annual chart can show.

Oct 16 · 47.5latest reading
Broad U.S. market crash-risk score, month by month, over the last 12 months Month-end composite readings; the final point is the current reading.

Month-end composite scores for the last twelve months. Each point is focusable and announces its month, score and risk band.

Month-end composite

Each year uses only what was known at the time. Tested against 14 crashes since 1928, the score reads 0.70 out of 1, where a coin flip is 0.50. Early years use fewer signals, because some data did not exist yet.

U.S. Stock Market Crash Risk · October 2026

Will the stock market crash? Probably not soon. But nobody knows.

Stocks are very expensive, and people have borrowed close to a record amount to buy them. That sounds scary, but neither fact tells you when a crash will come. High prices have never picked the date. They just make the fall worse once it starts. The one sign with a real track record is lending stress, and lenders are calm right now. Since 1928, months that scored like this one were followed by a 20% fall 6% of the time, against 13% for a normal month. That is below the usual risk. It can change in weeks.

Data as of October 2026 Crash = the market falling 20%+ from its high 7 warning signs · combined into one score
S&P 500overall crash risk · 0–100
0/100
Guarded

Months like this were followed by a 20% fall 6% of the time. A normal month is 13%.

Nasdaqoverall crash risk · 0–100
0/100
Elevated

Scored the same way, then 2.75 points higher because the Nasdaq leans on a handful of tech giants.

Stock prices vs. earnings near 1999 record · very expensive Market value vs. the whole economy 238% · very stretched Tech stocks cost 32× · their yearly profit Borrowed money in the market $1.45 trillion · climbing again Tech is 38% of the market · off a record share ~52% of stocks trending up · back at the worry line Stress on risky-company loans rising · 3.2%, widest since April Stress on safe-company loans low · steady Fear gauge (VIX) 20 · jumped Friday, 22 intraday Day-to-day price swings 0.5% a day · normal Buying of crash insurance 0.80 · single-stock hedging up Bond-market recession signal normal · gap narrowed as long rates fell back Second recession signal normal Bank lending rates normal 10-year Treasury yield ~5.1% · off a 26-year high Fed raised rates to 3.75–4% · October ~15% No cash crunch calm Unemployment 4.2% · 29,000 jobs added Recession alarm 0.00 · sounds at 0.50 Factories still growing · ninth month, prices paid up Inflation 3.7% · highest since May, core 2.6% Consumer confidence 81.9 · Michigan survey at a record low