0/100
Guarded
S&P 500
One number, from seven warning signs.
S&P 500 43
Nasdaq 46
A transparent market crash monitor
Risk through market history
The score each December, 1928 to 2026
2026 · 43latest reading
Computed December readings for selected years, and August 2026 at 43. Higher scores mean higher estimated crash risk.
The last 12 months, month by month
The same score at each month-end, in more detail than the annual chart can show.
Aug 17 · 43.4latest reading
Month-end composite scores for the last twelve months. Each point is focusable and announces its month, score and risk band.
U.S. Stock Market Crash Risk · August 2026
Will the stock market crash? Probably not soon. But nobody knows.
Stocks are very expensive, and people have borrowed close to a record amount to buy them. That sounds scary, but neither fact tells you when a crash will come. High prices have never picked the date. They just make the fall worse once it starts. The one sign with a real track record is lending stress, and lenders are calm right now. Since 1928, months that scored like this one were followed by a 20% fall 6% of the time, against 13% for a normal month. That is below the usual risk. It can change in weeks.
S&P 500overall crash risk · 0–100
0/100
Guarded
Months like this were followed by a 20% fall 6% of the time. A normal month is 13%.
35506580
Nasdaqoverall crash risk · 0–100
0/100
Guarded
Scored the same way, then 2.75 points higher because the Nasdaq leans on a handful of tech giants.
35506580
Stock prices vs. earnings near 1999 record · very expensive
Market value vs. the whole economy 230% · very stretched
Tech stocks cost 32× · their yearly profit
Borrowed money in the market $1.42 trillion · off its record
Tech is nearly 38% of the market · record
~69% of stocks trending up · broad, but slipping
Stress on risky-company loans low · calm
Stress on safe-company loans very low
Fear gauge (VIX) 15 · calm
Buying of crash insurance 0.65 · low
Bond-market recession signal normal
Second recession signal normal
Bank lending rates normal
No cash crunch calm
Unemployment 4.1% · but jobs were lost
Recession alarm -0.03 · sounds at 0.50
Factories still growing
Inflation 3.4% · cooling
Warning signs
Seven warning signs, one score
Each sign scores 0 to 100, and higher is worse. They do not count equally. Lending stress counts most, at 35%, because it has shown up before more crashes than anything else. Share price counts least, at 5%, because on its own it is worse than a coin flip at calling a crash. Hover any card for more.
How expensive stocks are
5% of scoreStock prices are near the highest they have ever been compared with company earnings, close to the 1999 dot-com peak. The whole market is also huge compared with the economy behind it, and tech is the most stretched part of all.
Score
97CRISIS
035506580100
Borrowed money & hidden risk
5% of scoreInvestors have borrowed $1.42 trillion to buy stocks, down from June's record $1.50 trillion but still 39% higher than a year ago. Big hedge funds are borrowing near record amounts too. And a lot of lending now happens out of public view, where the risks are hard to see.
Score
70HIGH ALERT
035506580100
Fear & mood
25% of scoreThe market's fear gauge slipped again to 15, and this time day-to-day price swings eased with it, so the gap between the two has closed. Nobody is paying up for protection. There is no sign of panic, and none of hidden strain either.
Score
42GUARDED
035506580100
The economy & market health
5% of scoreUnemployment fell to 4.1% and the recession alarm went quieter, but for the wrong reason: the economy shed 23,000 jobs in July and the two months before were revised down. Fewer people are counted as looking for work. Factories are still growing. And a few giant stocks are still driving the whole market higher.
Score
33LOW
035506580100
Interest rates
15% of scoreThe bond market is not flashing a recession warning, and the gap between short and long rates widened after the Fed held steady in July. But three of the twelve Fed voters wanted a hike, and if rates do rise, expensive tech stocks take the biggest hit.
Score
64ELEVATED
035506580100
Money flowing through the system
10% of scoreCash is moving smoothly between banks, and there is plenty of money in the system. There is no sign of the kind of squeeze that usually shows up when a crisis is brewing.
Score
42GUARDED
035506580100
Signs of stress in lending
35% of scoreThe cost for companies to borrow, both risky and safe ones, is low and steady. Lenders are not nervous, and there is no sign of a cash crunch anywhere in the system.
Score
25LOW
035506580100
How it adds up
Stress in lending 35% · Fear & mood 25% · Interest rates 15% · Money flow 10% · How expensive stocks are 5% · Borrowed money 5% · Economy & market health 5%. The weights come from checking which signs actually showed up before the last 14 crashes. Lending stress warned most often, so it counts most. Share price warned least, so it counts least. The Nasdaq scores 2.75 points higher because it leans on a handful of tech giants.
Scale: under 35 low · 35–50 guarded · 50–65 elevated · 65–80 high alert · over 80 crisis
Weak spots
Where the market would break first
These weak spots build slowly, and any one of them could turn an ordinary scare into a full-blown crash. None of them tells you when. Each one just makes the fall bigger once something else starts it.
>39%
Too much riding on a few AI giants
Tech now makes up nearly 38% of the S&P 500, the most ever. If one of these giants disappoints and investors start doubting the huge sums being spent on AI, both indexes get dragged down through the same few names.
Hits hardest → Nasdaq
~69%
Few stocks doing the heavy lifting
About 69% of S&P 500 stocks are in an uptrend, down from 73% in the middle of August, and the market has climbed even on days when most stocks fell. When a rally rests on so few names, it is much easier to knock over.
Hits → Both indexes
$1.417T
Borrowed money near its record
The amount investors have borrowed to buy stocks hit an all-time high of $1.50 trillion in June 2026, then fell 6% in July. Borrowed money does not pick the day trouble starts, but it guarantees that when stocks fall, people are forced to sell, pushing prices down even further.
Hits → Anyone who borrowed
$2.4T
Hedge funds are heavily borrowed
Borrowing is near record highs and concentrated in the biggest funds, including about $2.4 trillion tied up in U.S. government bonds. If those bets had to be unwound in a hurry, the stress would spread to every market at once.
Hits → The whole system
$256.8T
Hidden risk in private lending
A huge $256.8 trillion of lending worldwide now happens outside regular banks, and much of it, especially private loans, is hard to see into. Trouble there could build for a long time before anyone notices.
Hits → Loan-heavy corners
31.9×
Pricey tech, very sensitive to rates
Nasdaq-100 stocks cost about 32 times their yearly profits. Because so much of their value rests on profits far in the future, they are the part of the market most sensitive to any surprise jump in interest rates.
Hits → NasdaqTriggers to watch
What could light the fuse
A fragile market still needs something to set it off. These are the things to watch, grouped by how soon they could bite. The 6-month list is the tripwire: if those start flashing, the overall risk score climbs fast.
days to months
- Lending stress jumps. The single clearest sign a crash is actually starting.watch: borrowing costs for risky companies spike
- Fear spikes and stays high. The fear gauge jumps and doesn't quickly settle back down.watch: fear gauge (VIX) above 25 and staying there
- Fewer and fewer stocks holding up. More stocks hitting new lows while a few giants prop up the index.watch: share of stocks trending up falling fast
- A surprise rate hike. An unexpected move by the Federal Reserve hits stocks right away, tech hardest.rule of thumb: a small surprise ≈ 1% off stocks
- An AI earnings letdown. Any result that makes investors doubt the massive spending on AI, hitting the few giant stocks that lead the market.watch: big tech's profits vs. its spending
months to a year
- The job market weakens. The recession alarm creeping up from today's quiet reading toward the danger level.watch: alarm rising from -0.03 toward 0.50
- Factories start shrinking. Manufacturing tipping from growth into decline.watch: factory index dropping below 50 (now 55.6)
- Borrowed money swings hard. Either a fresh surge, or a sudden rush to pay back the $1.42 trillion still owed.watch: big monthly moves either way
- Money starts leaving stocks. Investors steadily pulling cash out instead of putting it in.watch: weekly money flows into and out of funds
- Profits fall while prices stay high. Expected company earnings get cut even as stocks stay record-expensive.watch: analysts cutting their profit forecasts
the slow burn
- A blow-up in private lending. A hidden corner of the giant non-bank lending world fails and forces a wave of selling.worst case: crash odds jump to 40%+ / 55%+
- A government-bond bet unwinds. Hedge funds' roughly $2.4 trillion bond position gets dumped under stress, jamming the market's plumbing.watch: whether big banks can absorb the selling
- An oil shock from world events. The classic out-of-the-blue trigger landing on an already-fragile market.feeds into the worst-case scenario
- Prices pulled back to earth. Stocks this expensive tend to deliver weak returns for years, either drifting down slowly or dropping fast.history: pricey markets → poor 10-year returns
- The AI spending doesn't pay off. If the huge AI buildout can't earn its keep, the 2000 dot-com bust could repeat.blueprint: the 2000–02 tech crash
The odds
What this score has meant
Every month since 1928 gets a score. This is what happened next. In a normal month, the chance of a 20% fall within six months is 13%. A score is only worth reading if it beats that.
What happened next1928–2026 · 1,179 months
0%of months like today were followed by a 20% fall within 6 months
Low
8%
Guarded
6%
Elevated
14%
High alert
23%
Crisis
77%
020406080%
Today the score is 43. Months like this were followed by a 20% fall 6% of the time. A normal month is 13%.
How accurate is it?tested against 14 crashes
0.70out of 1. A coin flip scores 0.50
This score
0.70
Lending stress
0.70
Share price
0.45
00.501.00
Lending stress alone does the same work as all seven signs put together. If you only watch one thing, watch that.
| Signal | Today | Starts to worry at |
|---|---|---|
| Cost for risky companies to borrow | 2.7% above safe borrowers. Calm. | 4.5% |
| Fear gauge (VIX) | 15. Quieter still. | 25 |
| Share of stocks in an uptrend | 69%. Middling. | below 50% |
| Interest rates | 3.50–3.75%, held again in July. Three of the twelve voters wanted a rise. | a surprise rise |
| The score itself | 43. Below average risk. | above 65 |
Past crashes
No two crashes look the same
2000 was about overpriced stocks. 2008 was about too much borrowing. 1987 and 2020 gave almost no warning. No single sign catches all of them. Anyone promising a reliable crash alarm is selling something.
1987
A sudden one-day crash
Warned early: stocks were expensive, had shot up fast, rates were rising, and fewer stocks were holding up.
Missed it: the bond market, jobs, and lending all looked fine.
2000
The dot-com bubble bursts
Warned early: record-high prices, sky-high tech valuations, a narrow rally, a flood of new listings, a bond-market warning.
Missed it: stress in lending gave no early warning.
2008
The debt & banking crash
Warned early: a bond-market warning, huge borrowing in housing and among non-bank lenders, and rising stress in lending.
Missed it: stock prices alone looked reasonable.
2020
The COVID shock
Warned early: almost nothing. An outside shock hit an expensive, crowded market.
Missed it: jobs and factory data gave no lead.
Common questions
Stock market crash FAQ
Short, plain answers to the questions people ask most about a market crash. The numbers reflect the August 2026 reading.
Will the stock market crash in 2026?
The score is 43 out of 100 for the S&P 500 and 46 for the Nasdaq. Both are guarded. Stocks are very expensive and borrowing is near its record, which sounds bad. But lending stress is low, and that is the sign that actually warns you before a crash. Today looks safer than a normal month. That can change quickly.
What are the odds of a stock market crash?
About 6%. Of the 327 months since 1928 that scored where we are now, 6.1% were followed by a 20% fall within six months. A normal month is 13%, so today sits below the usual risk. The margin of error runs from 4% to 9%, and six months is a short window in which a lot can change.
What counts as a stock market crash?
Here, a crash means the market falling 20% or more from its recent high within the time period shown.
What are the warning signs of a market crash?
The biggest ones today are record-high stock prices versus company earnings, a near-record amount of borrowed money, and a market propped up by a few giant AI stocks. Calmer signs include low fear, a low jobless rate, and no stress in lending.
What could trigger the next stock market crash?
The fastest triggers to watch are a jump in lending stress, a spike in the fear gauge (VIX) above 25, fewer stocks holding up the market, a surprise interest-rate hike, or a disappointing AI earnings report.
How does Will Market Crash predict a crash?
Seven groups of signals each score 0 to 100, where higher is worse. They are combined into one number, weighted by how often each one warned before the last 14 crashes. Lending stress carries the most weight. Share price carries the least. We then look up what happened after every month in the last 100 years that scored the same way. The result is a base rate, not a forecast.