What the numbers cannot see. Tariffs, wars, the Fed, scored by judgment and kept on record.

Raised from 2 to 3. For the first time the AI trade's debt repriced, not only its equity. CoreWeave, which has borrowed about $50 billion to build data centres for Microsoft and OpenAI, saw its bonds fall below 80 cents on the dollar with yields of 15-16% and credit-default swaps near 1,200 basis points; its shares and Nebius's lost between a sixth and a quarter on the week, and Gartner put out an estimate that 80% of such 'neoclouds' will not survive independently to 2030 (Reuters via Investing.com, Fortune, Investing.com, 16 October). The customers' numbers moved the other way from the valuations: OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, not the $68 billion reported a fortnight earlier, because it books only its net share of partner sales, and Nvidia, Oracle and Broadcom fell 3-5% on the day (CNBC, Admiral Markets, 8 October); Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% on the quarter after more than doubling the quarter before, and an adjusted profit, and some of its investors now want the November listing priced at $1.5 trillion rather than $2 trillion (Yahoo Finance, 15 and 16 October). The Nasdaq lost 4.5% on the week, its worst since June, the Philadelphia semiconductor index 11.4%, its worst since April 2025, with memory stocks down 15-24% on reports of Chinese progress. Two of the four raising triggers are close to met: an AI listing being repriced a quarter below its target, and a data-centre borrower's debt trading as distressed. Scored 3, acute, because there is now a plausible path to forced selling inside six months through the financing of the buildout; not 4 because no one has cut capex, the listing has not been pulled, and Nvidia has not guided down. The third-quarter prints from the hyperscalers in the last week of October are the test.

Unchanged at 3, after a fortnight in which the October decision was priced three different ways. The September minutes (7 October) had most participants expecting another rise 'by year end'. September payrolls of 29,000 against 90,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.2% (2 October), took the October odds to about 24%; the CPI of 14 October, 3.7% headline and a hot 0.3% core, took them to 51.5% in a day; then Warsh, at the IMF meetings on 16 October, refused to prejudge October or December, said of guidance 'we're not in that business anymore', praised recent tightening abroad, and the odds fell to 15-17% (InvestmentNews, 14 October; CNBC, Axios, Investing.com, 16 October). None of the three raising triggers fired: the 10-year sold at 5.30% on 7 October, its highest since 2000, but with 2.77 times cover and 80% to indirects, and the 30-year's 5.618% on 8 October was as well bid; neither CPI nor payrolls left October above 60%. The lowering trigger of a 10-year under 5% came within a tenth: 5.08% on 16 October from 5.31% on 5 October, as money left tech for bonds. Held at 3 because the committee's own stated path is another hike and the chair would not rule it out six days before an election, with headline inflation at a five-month high. It goes to 2 if October passes with a hold and the 10-year holds under 5%.

Unchanged at 3, with the raising trigger from the last reading fired and a reason not to raise. The attacks on shipping came back: ten vessels were struck in the week to 14 October, the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank on 13 October and the Cape Dao, hit on 23 September, sank the next day; the Houthis put a missile into the top floors of Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran on 14 October and were intercepted over Riyadh (gCaptain, 14 October; Anchorage Daily News, 14 October; Fox News, 14 and 15 October). Brent is about $106 and WTI about $98, up 3% and 9% from the last reading and still below the 28 September spike (Trading Economics, 16 October). The reason the score is not 4: on 8 October Trump wrote that the United States 'will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections', said talks were 'productive', and Tehran has a U.S. counter-proposal it says it will answer within days, while a third carrier arrives in the region by the end of October (WLOX/AP, 8 October). Prices are moving, but on shipping losses rather than on a new front, and the one dated commitment on the table is a pause. Held at 3, direction up: the war is being fought on tankers now.

Unchanged at 2. The Busan truce runs to 10 January 2027, and the fortnight since the last reading produced complaints rather than actions: Bessent has said China is about $17 billion short on its farm-purchase commitment and that rare-earth shipments have not returned to agreed levels, which is why the extension was two months rather than the six Washington asked for; Beijing said on 15 October that rare earths will keep flowing to Europe whatever happens to the U.S. deal (CNBC, 15 October; Startup Fortune, October). The presidents are reported to meet again in Shenzhen in November and Miami in December, so neither side wants the truce to lapse before then (Manila Times, 12 October). The pharmaceutical tariff is in force and has not moved prices. Scored 2 because every deadline is scheduled and priced; 3 needs a new control or a lapse.

Unchanged at 2, with the raising trigger touched by a repeat rather than a new name. High-yield spreads are 323 basis points, from 308 at the last reading and 268 on 22 September, with 325 on 14 October the widest since April; investment grade is flat at 84 (FRED). That is 27 short of the 350 line and nowhere near 100 in a month. Blue Owl again capped withdrawals at 5% from its two retail credit funds after investors asked for 39% of the technology fund and 17% of the income fund in the third quarter, and Blackstone held its 5% cap with about 10% requested (Bloomberg, Benzinga, 2 October): the same funds that gated in the second quarter, which the last reading already counted, with the requests still rising at the one most exposed to software. Bank results were mixed in the right places: JPMorgan missed for the first time in 17 quarters and added $539 million to reserves, more against corporate loans and less against cards, where charge-offs fell; Wells Fargo's provision rose to $1.03 billion; Goldman's trading made the quarter (JPMorgan, 13 October; Investing.com, 14 October). Fitch's private-credit default rate stands at a record 6.1%. Scored 2 because no lender has taken a mark and no new fund has gated; 3 if spreads pass 350, a bank writes down private-credit exposure, or CoreWeave becomes a default rather than a price.

Unchanged at 2, and the factor that improved most without a change in score. The continuing resolution runs to 11 December, so there is no shutdown inside the quarter, and the auctions the raising trigger watches were the strongest of the year: the 10-year at 5.300% drew 2.77 times cover with 80.3% to indirect bidders, the 30-year at 5.618% drew 2.54 against a 2.41 average with dealers left holding 6.8% against 10.3% (The Vault Report, Vantage Markets, 9 October). Buyers wanted the highest yields since 2000. Since then the 30-year has come back to 5.43%. Government debt is still named in bond coverage alongside the data-centre borrowing that competes for the same money, and tariff receipts still run well above last year. Scored 2 because the deficit is being financed in an orderly way at a price; 3 needs a failed auction or a post-election fight over the 11 December bill, which a divided result on 3 November would make likelier.

Unchanged at 2, with words but no act. Trump told Time on 1 October that Warsh 'should have voted against' the September hike and 'I probably would have voted against the board if I were him', a step up from backing him personally while calling the committee political, and the committee's next decision is on 28 October, six days before the midterms (Bloomberg, Quartz, 1 October). Warsh's answer on 16 October was to refuse guidance in either direction. No move against a governor, no legislation, no legal action. The president's pause on Iran strikes until after the election is a reminder that the calendar is now organising policy. Scored 2 because the conflict is open and the pre-election decision is the obvious flashpoint; 3 needs an act, not a post. It goes to 1 if October passes without a White House campaign against the decision and the election produces a clear result.

Lowered from 2 to 1, as the last reading said it would be if the quarter-end and the October auctions both passed quietly. They did. The 30 September settlement of $202 billion went through with SOFR at 3.88%, under the rate the Fed pays on reserves, and it has sat there since; the standing repo facility was not needed (SOFR Rate, 14 October). The 10-year and 30-year auctions were the best bid of the year with dealers taking the smallest shares. The basis trade has kept shrinking, to about $900 billion from $1.26 trillion at the start of the year, concentrated in the two- and five-year, an unwind in the orderly direction (Hedgeweek, October). The one stress test this factor watches that did happen, a 20-basis-point rally in the 10-year on a tech sell-off, passed without a reported margin call or a swap-spread break. Scored 1, background: the mechanism is present and discussed, but nothing is scheduled inside six months that would test it, and the positions that would be tested are smaller than they were. It goes back to 2 if the November refunding leans on dealers or the VIX holds above 20 into the Fed meeting.